Commercial air travel has become increasingly safe over the decades. The risk of a fatal incident during a flight has dropped significantly since the late 1960s. In fact, the chances of dying on a commercial flight have been cut in half about every ten years.
From 2018 to 2022, the risk of a fatality was approximately 1 in 13.7 million passenger boardings worldwide. This marks a major improvement from the 2008-2017 period, when the risk was about 1 in 7.9 million boardings. The progress becomes even more apparent when compared to the late 1960s and early 1970s, when the risk was roughly 1 in 350,000 boardings.
This steady improvement in air travel safety can be illustrated through the following table:
| Time Period | Fatality Risk (per passenger boarding) |
|---|---|
| 1968-1977 | 1 in 350,000 |
| 1978-1987 | 1 in 750,000 |
| 1988-1997 | 1 in 1.3 million |
| 1998-2007 | 1 in 2.7 million |
| 2007-2017 | 1 in 7.9 million |
| 2018-2022 | 1 in 13.7 million |
The data shows a clear trend of increasing safety over time. Passengers today are about 39 times safer than they were in the late 1960s and early 1970s.
Several factors have contributed to this improvement in air travel safety:
- Technological advances
- Extensive training programs
- Rigorous work by aviation authorities
- Improved safety systems in aircraft
One notable technological improvement is the implementation of collision avoidance systems in planes. These systems help prevent accidents by alerting pilots to potential dangers.
It’s important to note that air travel safety is not uniform across the globe. Countries can be divided into three tiers based on their commercial air safety records:
Tier 1:
- United States
- European Union countries
- Other European states (e.g., Norway, Switzerland, UK)
- Australia
- Canada
- China
- Israel
- Japan
- New Zealand
Tier 2:
- Brazil
- Chile
- Hong Kong
- India
- Malaysia
- Mexico
- Singapore
- South Korea
- Turkey
- United Arab Emirates
- (and others)
Tier 3:
- All other countries not listed in Tier 1 or Tier 2
The top two tiers have similar safety records, with a death risk of about 1 in 80 million boardings from 2018 to 2022. Countries in the third tier have a higher risk, with 36.5 times more fatalities per boarding compared to the top tier during the same period.
Despite this disparity, it’s worth noting that even countries in the third tier have seen improvements in air safety. Their fatality rates have also been cut roughly in half during the 2018-2022 period, mirroring the rate of improvement in the leading countries.
The COVID-19 pandemic introduced new risks to air travel that are not typically included in safety statistics. A study estimated that from June 2020 through February 2021, before vaccines were widely available, about 1,200 deaths in the United States were linked to COVID-19 transmission on passenger planes. This number includes both direct transmission to passengers and indirect transmission to others who came into contact with infected travelers.
Globally, the study estimated that from March 2020 through December 2022, around 4,760 deaths were associated with COVID-19 transmission on airplanes. These estimates take into account factors such as transmission rates, daily death rates, and the age distribution of air passengers during the pandemic.
Interestingly, older Americans did not seem to fly less during the COVID-19 pandemic, despite their higher risk of severe illness or death if infected. This observation highlights the complex relationship between perceived risk and travel behavior.
While the pandemic introduced temporary additional risks, it’s crucial to distinguish these from the long-term safety trends in commercial aviation. The ongoing improvements in air travel safety are based on accidents and deliberate attacks on aviation, not including pandemic-related risks.
The continuous enhancement of air travel safety is often compared to Moore’s Law in the computer industry, which observes that computing power tends to double about every 18 months. In the case of air travel, safety has roughly doubled every decade since the late 1960s.
This progress is not guaranteed to continue indefinitely. Recent incidents, such as near-collisions on runways in the United States, serve as reminders that maintaining and improving air safety requires constant vigilance and effort.
Aviation authorities, airlines, and researchers continue to analyze data and implement new safety measures. Their ongoing work aims to further reduce risks and maintain the trend of improving air travel safety.
The metric used to measure air travel risk in this study is deaths per passenger boarding. This measure was chosen because it directly answers the question: “If you have a boarding pass for a flight, what are your odds of dying?” It also includes incidents that might occur in airport terminals, providing a comprehensive view of air travel safety.
Other metrics used in the industry include deaths per billion passenger miles and fatal accidents per 100,000 flight hours. While these measures provide valuable insights, the deaths per passenger boarding metric is considered the most straightforward and relatable for the average traveler.
